Is a 40% win rate bad? How famous traders compare
The rules tested on this site win about 40% of trades. That sounds poor, until you see what the most successful trend traders say about their own numbers.
Win rates of famous traders
| Who | Win rate | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Rules tested on this site (1,460 trades) | 40% | our backtest, 05 Nov 2024 to 05 Nov 2026 |
| Mark Minervini | about 50% | his interviews (self-reported) |
| Qullamaggie (Kristjan Kullamägi) | about 25-30% | his streams and interviews (self-reported) |
| Turtle traders, trend followers | about 30-40% | books and interviews |
| William O'Neil style | about 40-50% | books |
| Telegram "tip" channels | "80-95%" | marketing claims, rarely verified |
So a 40% win rate is normal for trend-following. Some of the best traders in the world win less often than that.
What really decides the result
The size of the winners against the losers. The famous traders above say their average winner is 3 to 10 times their average loser: a few big trends pay for many small losses. The rules on this site make an average winner of only about 1.2 times the average loser, because they sell at a fixed target or after 10 days. That is why they average -0.10R per trade: about the same win rate, much smaller wins.
Expectancy = win rate × average win − loss rate × average loss
40% × 1.2 − 60% × 1.0 = −0.12R. Raise the average win to 2.0 and it becomes 40% × 2.0 − 60% × 1.0 = +0.20R. See expectancy.
What about 90% accuracy claims?
A high win rate is easy to make: take small profits quickly and let losers run. It looks wonderful until one large loss wipes out months of small wins. When anyone shows a win rate, ask for the average loss and the number of trades. SEBI has acted against tip sellers and finfluencers who advertise accuracy or sure returns.
How Indian traders do overall
SEBI's own studies found that 93% of individual futures and options traders lost money over FY22-FY24 (about ₹2 lakh each on average, costs included), and that 71% of individual intraday traders in the cash market lost money in FY23. Any method that keeps losses small is already ahead of most. (Sources: SEBI studies of 23 September 2024 and 24 July 2024.)